Parallel Session 1 – Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Wednesday 23 October 2024, 13.00-14.30 BRT

Video recording of the session

Moderator: Jim Spaeth (DOE, USA)

Speakers:

Panel (L-to-R): Eduardo Calderon, Camilo Adas, Rubens Maciel, Susan van Dyk, Jim Spaeth.

Selected key messages:

  • The International Air Transport Association IATA expects global SAF demand to rise from 8 billion liters in 2025, to 23 billion liters in 2030 and further up to 450 billion liters by 2050, representing 70% of aviation fuels. SAF refueling infrastructure is currently being set up at airports. Most current SAF investments are based on lipids – vegetable oils, animal fats and used cooking oil – where renewable diesel (HVO), sustainable aviation fuels (HEFA) and green naphtha are co-produced.
  • HEFA (based on lipids) is fully commercial and will continue to be the main technology for the next 10 years at least. With limited investment all renewable diesel (HVO) facilities can produce at least 15% biojet fraction or more. However, we will soon bump into limits of waste fats and oils availability. There are options to increase the production of oil crops, but the sustainability of such expansion is highly debated (and not allowed for SAF in the EU).
  • Commercialization of ALL technologies should be pursued as they can utilize different feedstocks and take advantage of regional differences. It is critical for other technology pathways to reach commercial scale, but this has been challenging. It will take time and needs to go through a learning curve, progressing from pilot to demonstration to commercial scale without skipping steps; expectations are sometimes unrealistic. There are a lot of announcements out there, but facilities will only go forward once there is a final investment decision (FID). SAF projects based on unproven technologies represent a high risk for investors. Overall, meeting SAF targets will be extremely challenging, and technologies are not scaling up as people were expecting. It is also important to share experiences, even about failures and setbacks, so markets can learn from them.
  • Fuel costs represent 40% of OPEX for Brazilian airlines. Including sustainable aviation fuels which cost two to three times more is really complicated for airlines. Brazil is a very big country, and aviation is key for transportation within the country. On the other hand, Brazil has advantages in terms of feedstocks, with a long history in ethanol production and it would be possible to produce a reasonably low cost SAF. Refineries in Brazil can play an important role, certainly in the beginning, to co-process SAF. They have the money and technology skills, and they have to reinvent themselves because they can’t continue to rely on fossil fuels forever.
  • When implementing SAF mandate systems, a book and claim system would be a good solution to save costs and emissions. SAF could be produced close to the feedstock and used by regional airlines, without transporting it all over the world to where incentives are highest.
  • The SAF industry requires very broad international collaboration to most effectively develop the global industry. Brazil and other emerging economies have excellent and proven technologies that can contribute greatly to the growth of the SAF industry.

    Biojet fuel production pathways (from presentation Rubens Maciel, Unicamp)