Meta-data analysis of biofuels in emerging markets of Africa and Asia: Greenhouse gas savings and economic feasibility

New paper published in the high impact journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, based on research carried out in the frame of IEA Bioenergy Task 39 (transport biofuels). In this study, the authors conducted a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of ethanol and biodiesel across China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, and Thailand. The work builds on previous work on Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala.

The full paper is available in open access for 40 days, i.e. until 22 March 2025.

Key Findings:

• A 25% biofuel blend can reduce GHG emissions of transport by 17%, contributing to climate goals of developing countries. Care should be taken to avoid that agricultural activity is expanded into high carbon stock areas which could cause direct or indirect land use change effects.
• Biofuels are cost-effective: biofuel blending does not lead to higher fuel cost in several of the analyzed countries. The economic competitiveness varies by country, influenced by feedstock cost and fossil fuel subsidies.
• The required land footprint for biofuels production to replace 25% of fossil transport fuels is below 5% of the agricultural area for five out of the seven analyzed countries.
• International trade of biofuels can provide biofuels to countries with low land availability.
• Overseas transport from the Americas to Asia adds only 6 to 10 gCO2e/MJ to the carbon footprint of biofuels.

Biofuels offer an immediate and scalable solution for reducing transportation emissions — especially in developing economies where fleet renewal is costly, slow, and electrification projects require a low carbon intensity electricity matrix, planning and infrastructure. The analysis also indicates countries where biofuels can be produced with small land expansion requirements and maximum gains in GHG emissions reductions.

Much of the work is also published in an IEA Bioenergy Task 39 report

See the previous work on Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala

Global warming potential of biofuel vs. fossil fuel in each fuel pathway. The biofuel pathway is indicated as biodiesel (BD) or ethanol (ET) followed by its feedstock. NB: ∗ corn ethanol imported from the United States, † sugarcane ethanol imported from Brazil, and ‡ fossil fuel market in South Africa is composed of regular and coal-derived gasoline and diesel.