IEA Renewables 2023 – Biofuel and Biogas Forecasts

On 11 January 2024, IEA launched “Renewables 2023”, the IEA’s primary analysis on the renewable energy sector, based on current policies and market developments over the next five years (up to 2028). 

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There is a lot to explore this year on biofuels and biogas; below some of the main conclusions:

• Biofuel deployment is accelerating: Biofuel demand is set to expand 38 billion litres over 2023-2028, a near 30% increase from the last two five-year periods. Renewable diesel and biojet account for nearly half that expansion. Emerging economies, led by Brazil, dominate global biofuel expansion: Supported by robust biofuel policies, increasing transport fuel demand and abundant feedstock potential, emerging economies are forecast to drive 70% of global biofuel demand growth over the forecast period. Brazil alone accounts for 40% of biofuel expansion to 2028.

• Electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels are proving to be a powerful combo for reducing oil demand. Globally, biofuels and renewable electricity used in EVs are forecast to offset 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2028, which is more than 7% of forecast oil demand for transport. Biofuels remain the dominant pathway for avoiding oil demand in the diesel and jet fuel segments. EVs outpace biofuels in the gasoline segment, especially in the United States, Europe and China.

• Biojet fuel demand is expected to soar with fulfilment of policy promises: Globally, biojet fuel use is expected to expand by nearly 5 billion litres, making up almost 1% of global jet fuel supplies by 2028. If policies under discussion are implemented and planned projects built, biojet fuel demand climbs to 3.5% of global jet fuel supplies by 2028.

• Aligning biofuels with a net zero pathway requires a huge increase in the pace of deployment: This report’s main case forecast is not in line with the near tripling of biofuels demand by 2030 seen in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario. Much faster biofuel deployment is possible through new policies and addressing supply chain challenges. In an accelerated case, biofuel supply growth is nearly triple that of the main case, closing the gap with the NZE Scenario by nearly 40%.

• Biogas and biomethane demand is accelerating thanks to new policies: Biogases expand by more than 30% over the next five years led by Europe and the United States.

There is much more in the report on costs, the status of e-fuels and the rise of carbon-based transport policies.

There is also a new Renewable Energy Tracker with details on biofuel production, use and feedstock demand for ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel.

Links below:

• Biofuels and biogas focus sections
• Renewable energy progress tracker
• The executive summary
• Press release
• Launch
• The full report